The system
Sources and limits
The statistics come from professional and college football. High school defenses are slower to adjust, kicking games are weaker and passing is less efficient, so the true numbers for your league will differ. The weights and the role formulas are judgments built on those findings and on fifty years of watching the game at these levels. Treat the exact percentages as a first draft to correct with your own film.
Rules and safety
- NFHS football rules changes for 2026boundwisconsin.com/p/nfhs-announces-football-rules-changes-for-2026
- 2026 points of emphasis, Football Zebrasfootballzebras.com/2026/08/head-slaps-and-assisting-the-runner-targeted-by-nfhs-in-2026/
- NFHS football rules changes for 2025nfhs.org/resources/sports/football-rules-changes-2025
- NFHS points of emphasis on legal formationsnfhs.org/sports-resource-content/football-points-of-emphasis-2020/
- NFHS Rule 7 text: formation, shift and motionmwfoa.com/rule-7/
- NFHS on blocking below the waistnfhs.org/stories/blocking-below-the-waist-in-free-blocking-zone-addressed-in-high-school-football-rules
- Blindside block rule and rulingsosaa.org/docs/fbl/blindside.pdf
- NFHS on helping the runnernfhs.org/media/6893140/2023-nfhs-football-points-of-emphasis-final.pdf
- NFHS task force on limiting full contactnfhs.org/stories/states-adopt-plans-to-limit-contact-in-football
Play calling and play design
- Kovash and Levitt, Professionals Do Not Play Minimaxnber.org/papers/w15347
- Emara and others, Serial correlation in NFL play callingsciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214804317300071
- Football Outsiders, research on play-action passingfootballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
- Football Outsiders, situational play-actionfootballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/situational-play-action-passing-nfl
- ESPN, the value of motion at the snapespn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28170117/pre-snap-motion-given-ravens-edge-why-more-teams-use-it
- FiveThirtyEight, motion and delay-of-game penaltiesfivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ravens-pre-snap-motion-is-a-deadly-weapon-but-it-might-also-lead-to-more-penalties
- StatsBomb, The Anatomy of Explosive Pass Playsblogarchive.statsbomb.com/articles/football/the-anatomy-of-explosive-pass-plays/
- Pro Football Focus, yards per carry by run conceptpff.com/news/fantasy-football-finding-an-edge-in-offensive-run-concepts-2023
Situations and testing
- FiveThirtyEight, box count and rushingfivethirtyeight.com/features/the-secret-to-the-rams-blocking-success-isnt-the-linemen-its-sean-mcvay
- FTN, yards per carry by defenders in the boxftnfantasy.com/nfl/fantasy-football-stat-of-the-day-success-against-stacked-boxes
- Pro Football Focus, the sneak against the handoffpff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-qb-sneak-rb-run
- Yale, short-yardage play types on fourth downsports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down
- Romer, Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Footballeml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf
- Connelly, the Five Factorsfootballstudyhall.com/2018/2/2/16963820/college-football-advanced-stats-glossary
- Mann and others, speed and momentum by positionovid.com/jnls/nsca-jscr/fulltext/10.1519/jsc.0000000000004944~the-role-of-speed-change-of-direction-and-momentum-by
- Performance differences among 2,327 high school playerspubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20634741/
Common questions
Questions coaches ask.
Where do the statistics come from?
From published work on professional and college football: NBER, Football Outsiders, ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, StatsBomb, Pro Football Focus, FTN, Yale, the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, and the NFHS rules publications. Every source is linked on this page.
Why might the numbers be different for my league?
High school and small-college defenses are slower to adjust, kicking games are weaker and passing is less efficient than at the levels the research covers. The weights and the role formulas are judgments built on those findings and on fifty years of watching the game at these levels; treat the exact percentages as a first draft to correct with your own film.
Has any of this been validated with high school or small-college data?
Not with a large public data set, because none exists at those levels. Gathering it, starting with the programs that run the system, is part of the plan, and the weekly charting in the install is designed to feed it.
Can I suggest a correction or a source?
Yes. Create a free account and use the contact details on your tools page, or email the address in the footer. Corrections that change a weight will be noted in the next edition.